The Flyers will play a team facing its third game in three days at 2 p.m. Friday. They play a seed that has never won a quarterfinal game. They don’t have to play a team that beat the No. 1 seed, Saint Louis, by 29 points Saturday, or a team that beat them four times in a row until the 82-67 decision on Feb. 18.
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Dayton coaches Anthony Grant and James Kane watched the St. Bonaventure game from press row opposite the George Mason bench. They probably weren’t surprised by the result. They know as well as anyone that anything can happen in this tournament.
Dayton has lost its first A-10 tournament game two years in a row. To stop that streak, it will have to beat a team playing for its coach. Mark Schmidt will retire after this season. Every victory keeps his team alive another day.
This is Schmidt’s 19th season. Only Richmond’s Chris Mooney, who has coached 21 seasons, has been around longer in the A-10.
George Mason’s Tony Skinn, who has coached the Patriots for two seasons, is one of the new guys but recognized one of the veterans in his postgame press conference after a disappointing ending to a season that started with 18 victories in 19 games.
“The highs and lows of this sport that we play,” Skinn said. “You win at home against one of the better teams, not just in our league, but in the country, and then you come back and lay an egg in the second half. It’s unfortunate. I think the only thing that I’m happy about is probably it couldn’t happen to a better guy in Coach Mark Schmidt.”
What the odds say
Credit: David Jablonski
Credit: David Jablonski
If you’re wondering what the PPG in PPG Paints Arena stands for, it’s the Pittsburgh Plate Glass Company. My day Thursday started with three different letters: ENT.
My 7-year-old son Chase had his third round of ear tubes installed at Ohio ENT in Columbus. It’s a simple procedure. We’re in and out in about two hours. The procedure takes 10-15 minutes. They do have to knock him out for a bit, though, and he woke up nauseous and teary-eyed.
The promise of a Pokemon card delivery on Friday raised Chase’s spirits, as did a blue slushie they gave him in the waiting room when he woke up. He’s a pro. Hopefully, these tubes stay in place through next winter, and we don’t have to deal with three ear infections in six weeks.
When it comes to covering the A-10 tournament, I am even more experienced than Chase is with ear tubes. This is my 13th trip in 13 seasons. I even attended the 2020 tournament that was canceled during my Uber ride from La Guardia Airport to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y.
A few of the biggest Dayton fans attended the second-round games Thursday. I talked to John McKeon, who attends many UD road games, and Ben Lanka, a Columbus Dispatch editor who always wears colorful clothing when he’s watching the Flyers play.
Many more Dayton fans will show up Friday, hoping for a long weekend. According to Ken Pomeroy’s odds when the tournament began, Dayton had a 10.4% chance of winning the championship, a 22.5% chance of reaching the final and a 61.7% chance of reaching the semifinals.
With the opponent now known, Dayton has a 70% chance of winning Friday, according to KenPom.com.
No. 1 seed Saint Louis entered the tournament as the favorite with a 35.7% chance of winning its first championship since 2019. The Billikens play No. 9 seed George Washington in the first quarterfinal at 11:30 a.m. Friday.
No. 2 seed Virginia Commonwealth was a close second with 34.7% odds of winning the championship. It plays No. 7 seed Duquesne at 5 p.m. Friday.
George Washington (4%), No. 3 seed Saint Joseph’s (3.6%) and No. 6 Davidson (3.5%) were the only other teams with odds greater than 3%.
Saint Joseph’s and Davidson play in the final quarterfinal game Friday at 7:30 p.m.
I crossed paths with Davidson freshman RJ Greer, the Alter grad whose dad is Dayton associate head coach Ricardo Greer, near the media room Thursday before Davidson beat Loyola Chicago 64-59 in overtime.
I wished Greer luck and said I hope he enjoys a long weekend here. I hope the same happens for me. I love conference tournaments.
Fast Break
Here’s other news that might interest Flyer fans:
🏀 VCU likely needs to beat Duquesne on Friday to secure a NCAA tournament at-large berth. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi lists VCU as one of the “Last Four In” in his latest bracket prediction and projects it as a No. 11 seed playing another No. 11, Missouri, at the First Four in Dayton.
🏀 The A-10 is selling its own bourbon brand this month to celebrate its 50th anniversary. It’s titled “Aurelian Reserve,” and bottles can be purchased online but not at the tournament. They do have mixed drinks at PPG Paints Arena that feature the spirit.
🏀 Former Dayton walk-on Camron Greer will head to the NCAA tournament next week as an assistant coach at North Dakota State, which earned a bid by winning the Summit League championship Sunday.
Greer started at NDSU in 2023 as a director of operations and was promoted to assistant coach the same season. He played at Dayton from 2017-21. He was on the team that was denied a chance to play in the NCAA tournament because of the pandemic in 2020. That was also the last season North Dakota State earned a bid until this season.
🏀 What do you want to know about the Flyers?
I want to hear from you. Reach out to me directly at david.jablonski@coxinc.com with your questions and feedback on the team or this newsletter.
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